Golf course analytics

Your course will outlive every member. Nobody has measured how it plays.

Most golf analytics measures players. FogBow measures the golf course.

Independent measurement of how a golf course actually plays, from the club's own scoring records — a baseline over time, difficulty across the range of member ability, competition fairness, maintenance, setup and capital projects. FogBow sells no equipment and has no stake in what the numbers say.

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Questions your committee cannot answer today

Should we spend the money, and on which holes?A measured baseline before a renovation — and the same measurement after, to show what the money bought. The baseline cannot be reconstructed once the work begins.
Are we managing the course consistently, year to year?The architecture does not change between seasons. Once weather is accounted for, what moves is turf, green speed and setup — measured against your own course last year, not against a neighbour's.
Is the competition fair across the whole field?Whether your allowances land where the committee intends them to.
Are our members on the right tees?Every tee set is rated separately, and deviation from the card usually concentrates in one of them rather than spreading evenly. Measured set by set, it shows who is playing a golf course longer than the one they were rated for.
What are the conditions actually worth?Wind, green speed and rough priced in strokes — so a season that played hard separates into what the weather did and what the club did. Nobody currently measures either.
How does our course compare?Placed against championship venues on a measured scale, with stated criteria — not on a panel's opinion.
Which holes actually defend par?As against the ones that only look hard from the tee.
Are our courses consistent with each other?For anyone holding more than one. Every course placed on the same measured scale, so a guest sent to the wrong one is a decision rather than an accident. Where the same golfer plays several courses in a stay, that comparison is made within the player — the strongest evidence available anywhere in golf.

What a club receives

A written report

Findings first, then the exhibits behind them, the method in plain language, and an honest account of what the data will and won't support. Short enough that a committee reads it, complete enough that a doubter can check it.

Nine optional modules

$1,200 each — handicap integrity, competition fairness, course setup, tee fit, pin sheets. These run from the scoring record the club already holds.

$2,500 each — maintenance impact, season monitoring, renovation effect, pace of play. These need data beyond the scorecard, or a second measurement separated in time.

A tier, held privately

Your course placed on a four-tier scale of measured difficulty, against championship venues. Yours alone — FogBow publishes no league table and never will.

Evidence, not opinion

Every method is checked first against data whose answer is known in advance, so a finding is shown to be recoverable and not merely produced.

A stroke index that holds up

Allocation derived hole by hole from your own scoring, separately for each tee set, under the WHS Appendix E rules — with an annotated card showing where it differs from the one printed today, and why.

A baseline you keep

The measured starting point, in a form that can be re-run. Next season, after a change to the maintenance programme, or either side of a renovation — the comparison exists only because the first measurement was made properly.


What it costs

Published, and final. There is one price, it is the same for every club, and there is nothing to negotiate. A club should be able to work out what this costs before picking up the phone.

One club, one course$4,500
One club, two or more courses$6,500
Individual modules$1,200 or $2,500
Full engagement — every module, all courses at one club$10,750
Three or more clubs under common ownership$3,750 per course

2026 fee schedule. Multi-year agreements lock current-year pricing. Nothing costs more than everything.


Who does the work

Junaid Mohiuddin originated the analysis FogBow is built on, and developed the framework it applies.

Golf has always judged how hard a course plays by winning score or raw scoring average. Both confuse the architecture with the weather, the setup, and who happened to be in the field that week. Across three published papers he replaced them with Adjusted Field Scoring Average — a measure anchored to the quality of the field that produced it — and then tested a four-tier classification of venues by formal inference rather than by expert opinion. The third isolates what setup alone contributes: at a course staging both an ordinary tour event and a major championship on unchanged architecture, the major setup added more than a stroke to the field's scoring.

Those papers compare venues to each other. Run instead on one course across successive seasons, the same method compares a course to itself — and the architecture does not move between seasons. Once weather is accounted for, what remains is what the club controls.

He has served on golf committees for more than a decade and volunteered scoring at professional and college tournaments, which is where the question of what a scoring record can and cannot support first came up. He has played more than two hundred courses.

Three decades building and auditing measurement systems: an operator in the technology industry, and an advisor at PwC and McKinsey & Company. A Six Sigma Black Belt — a formal qualification in exactly one thing, establishing whether a number means what it appears to mean. Undergraduate work at Northwestern in statistics, under Shelby Haberman, a Fellow of the IMS, ASA and AAAS, alongside computer science and the philosophy of science. Graduate work at Stanford's School of Engineering in decision analysis, under Sam Savage, who wrote The Flaw of Averages, and in operations research.

50championships analysed, 2010–2026 — every U.S. Open, Open and PGA Championship
34championship venues, with U.S. Open records reaching back to 1947
133championship days matched to reanalysis wind and rainfall
4populations of golfer tested — professional men, women, elite amateurs and regular tour fields

The statistical methods are long established. Applying them to golf courses this way is not, and every step is built to be checked rather than believed. The framework has since been tested against championships played after the models were fixed: at the 2026 Open, the field's scoring average came within 0.07 strokes of a forecast made in advance.


Writing

FogBow LLC · a California limited liability company
PO Box 59, 99 Pinehurst Rd., Canyon, CA 94516 · info@fogbow.llc

Course Calibration Report™, Course Difficulty Report™ and Difficulty Gradient™ are trademarks of FogBow LLC.

FogBow LLC is not affiliated with, endorsed by, or sponsored by the USGA, The R&A, or any Allied Golf Association.